The Trade Brief: Semester Abroad
School is back in session, but it feels like we’re in a semester abroad.
September’s trade story wasn’t really about tariffs, trade disputes or negotiations. It was about relationships: who’s getting closer, who’s on a break and who’s looking for new people to hang out with.
Europe started talking about the future, the U.S. continued sending mixed signals, and countries everywhere were busy expanding their circles and exploring new partnerships.
Turns out diversification isn’t just a trade strategy. It’s a social strategy too.
Here is what was on the September syllabus:
- It’s getting serious with Europe
- North America: It’s…complicated
- Seeing other nations
CANADA-EU, IT’S OFFICIAL…?
Canada and the EU might not be moving in together just yet, but they’ve definitely left a toothbrush🪥 at each other’s place.
This month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated the idea of making Canada an “associate member” of the European Union.
Whatever name we give to our ‘situationship’👀, it could open the door to deeper cooperation on lots of good stuff like:
- 💰Trade
- 🤖AI
- 🛡️Defence
- ⚡Energy
- 🪨Critical minerals
And hopefully smoother travel, study and work opportunities between Canada and Europe down the road.
Just FYI, Canada will NOT be a full member of the EU because of, well, geography and it is only limited to European countries.
In Strasbourg, Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a speech to the European Parliament welcoming the “associate membership” invitation and said:
“Canada and Europe are each strong. Europe and Canada are stronger together.”
It’s not official-official yet 🫸
It’s still in the ‘defining the relationship’ stage. “Associate membership” doesn’t currently exist in EU law, and Canada’s Parliament would get the final say.
But the idea has some critics:
- The United States isn’t too happy about this potential partnership. President Trump threatened heavy tariffs on the EU if it moved ahead with this proposal.
- Even some European capitals are skeptical of the “associate membership” category.
But perhaps things will clear up by the time the Canada-EU Summit takes place in Montreal at the end of October.
North america: it’s complicated
Meanwhile, back home, North America’s relationship status remains firmly set to: it’s complicated.
With the U.S. midterms only a few weeks away, Mexico is still working to try to lock🔒 in a deal while Canada and the United States are still playing coy.
Why the rush?
A pre-midterm deal could deliver both Mexico and the United States a win, while giving Mexico’s economy and investors some much-needed certainty.
A fourth round of USMCA chit-chats was scheduled for September 28 and 29, but has now been postponed.
As for Canada-U.S.negotiations? President Trump mused a Canada deal will come soon.
seeing other nations
🫂Bestest frenemies⚠️:
After 11 years, Chinese President Xi Jinping finally made the trip to Washington for a U.S.-China summit.
The goal? Both countries want a little breathing room, so the visit focused on stabilizing U.S.-China relations by:
- Trade Truce – which was set to expire on November 10 and has now been extended.
- 🇺🇸U.S. would like access to rare earth, critical minerals and agriculture
- 🇨🇳China would like longer trade stability, advanced technology and easier access to U.S. markets
Still, big disagreements remain over Taiwan, tech, trade and geopolitical tensions but the good news is that tariffs were cut on more than $30 billion worth of products.
🍁Maple syrup meets croissants🥐:
Just days after discussions about a deeper Canada-EU partnership, Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron announced new cooperation plans on space🛰️, defence🛡️ and economic growth📈.
Canada’s business community is also preparing for closer ties with its French counterparts through a new chamber of commerce agreement.
❄️Cold countries, hot topic🔥:
PM Carney’s meeting with Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in Ottawa wasn’t to trade winter survival strategies.
The pair discussed deeper cooperation on intelligence-sharing, defence and Arctic security as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
Why it matters? The Arctic is becoming a strategic hotspot, meaning countries are investing in submarines, surveillance, critical infrastructure and defence capabilities.
🍜Pho-ward together🤝:
Vietnam’s President To Lam became the first Vietnamese president to visit Canada this month, marking a milestone in one of Canada’s fastest-growing relationships.
The two countries upgraded ties to create a strategic partnership covering trade, innovation, energy and defence, while both continue looking for ways to diversify markets and strengthen economic resilience.
Vietnam is Canada’s largest trading partner in Southeast Asia and a key🔑piece of Ottawa’s Asia-Pacific diversification strategy.
☀️Sun,sea, free trade💰:
After nearly a decade of starts, stops and political drama, the EU and the Philippines have reached a “substantial conclusion” in their free trade negotiations.
The proposed deal would eliminate most tariffs and boost trade and investment.
The catch: labour rights, environmental protections and human rights concerns remain part of the conversation.
in conclusion
Summer is officially over, the leaves are changing colour, the days are getting shorter and fall is coming in hot, much like the news cycle.
Here’s to October bringing in more treats than tricks: like Canada embracing European café culture or a two-hour lunch break.
Here are a few recommended readings:
- Global trade is changing how the Canadian economy works
- Mark Carney’s ‘Europe Trilogy’: Mapping an Alliance for the Future
- Shipping Nations Warn Global Trade Is Fracturing — And Everyone Pays
- Bullied by the US, Canada Has a History of Reaching Out to Europe
- Ukraine’s third front is economic — and Canadian business is playing an active role
