The Trade Brief: Performance review
Happy Canada Day!
While most Canadians are taking a mid-week break to celebrate, watch FIFA and barbeque, there are some who are hoping that they won’t see any fireworks.🎆
That’s because July 1st, 2026, is the day Canadian negotiators are supposed to review their six-year-old agreement, the USMCA, with their American and Mexican counterparts.
This feels like when it’s your birthday, but your sibling happens to be born on the same day, so your celebration turns into a joint family event that you didn’t really ask for.
Yeah, well…it is what it is.
Since USMCA has had a cameo in almost every single Trade Brief since its inception, giving it a dedicated special edition covering the 5 W’s felt like destiny and less of a choice.
And so, we begin.
the birth
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was born on July 1st, 2020, out of the ashes of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The result of ongoing collaboration between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, the young agreement was only given a 16-year life expectancy with a built-in mandatory 6-year review. It also made enough changes to ensure it would not be constantly referred to as “NAFTA 2.0.”
the “deadline”
Six years flew by super-fast and now the moment of truth is upon us. Less a deadline than a milestone in a review and renewal process that began many months ago.
What’s supposed to happen is all 3 countries sit down and decide whether to:
- PLAN A: Agree to renew the agreement for another 16 years; or
- PLAN B: Don’t agree to extend the agreement for another 16 years and continue talking about it endlessly until they all agree or reach July 1st, 2036 – whichever comes first.
Plan ‘B’ is obviously second-best.
What happens if they do agree?
Then the 16-year countdown clock resets, and the next 6-year review happens in 2032.
Think of it as a recurring calendar invite that no one remembers accepting.
What happens if they don’t agree?
Well, it’s not as dramatic as we would’ve liked but: .
- 💥Nothing explodes
- 💨USMCA doesn’t vanish
- ⏱️The 10‑year death clock simply starts ticking in the background
Negotiations can and will continue, but not forever – it will just feel like forever. (Some are already scheduled between Mexico and the United States on July 20th.)
Where do the countries stand?
✅Well Mexico and Canada are definitely on board.
❎The U.S. is in its “still thinking about it” era, keeping everyone on their toes.
The confirm button is getting dusty.
Who’s speaking for Canada?
Dominic Leblanc is the cabinet minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade. He’s working with Canada’s newish ambassador to the United States, Mark Wiseman and equally new chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette.
the usmca ytd
January 2026:
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard met to chat about USMCA.
March 2026:
- U.S. and Mexico launched some technical discussions around USMCA
April 2026:
- USTR Jamieson Greer met with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussing U.S.- Mexico relations
May 2026:
- First negotiating round between the United States and Mexico in Mexico City
June 2026:
- 1: Canada officially requested a renewal with the U.S. and Mexico as did Mexico
- 16-17: U.S. and Mexico held a second negotiating round in Washington D.C
July 2026:
- 1: Canada Day with Friends
- 1: U.S. administration expected to declare they’re trying to exit USMCA….ooop
- 20: A third negotiating round between U.S. and Mexico is scheduled to take place in Mexico City
Mixed signals galore
President Trump is oscillating between “terminate it” and “maybe I’ll sign it” and most predictions say there WON’T be a review on July 1st.
But why?
Well, there are demands… from the U.S.
For Canada to address:
- 🎞️Streaming rules
- 🍺Liquor barriers
- 🐄Dairy quotas
For Mexico to address:
- ⚡Energy investment restrictions
- 🌾Agriculture policies
- 🌐Intellectual property issues
But the toughest USMCA fight is over 🚗autos and rules of origin. The U.S. wants to raise the percentage of U.S. and North American content.
So, like, TBD on all that. We have to wait and see.
in other news
Here’s the TLDR;
- BIG NEWS ALERT: Canada is stepping onto Europe’s big stage- yes, Eurovision is now allowing Canada to join. (Trade is not the only way to deepen ties with Europe 😉)
- Canada 🤝 Türkiye are expected to restart talks on an FTA
- Canada 🤝Japan: A successful Canadian trade mission to Japan concluded with a stronger defence relationship
- Global trade rose 0.7% because of AI demand for semiconductors and electronic shipments.
- 💻The EU tech tour: The European Union is expanding digital partnerships with countries like Brazil and South Korea to rely less on U.S. tech.
IN CONCLUSION
I guess we can say summer has officially started. Between FIFA, Love Island, and USMCA (for some), we’ve got our hands full. See you next month.
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