The Trade Brief: Scary Movie IRL
Halloween movies have much of the same formula: the phone won’t stop ringing, someone always goes to check where the noise came from, nothing ever stays dead, and just when you think it’s over…there’s another sequel.
This month, global trade followed this formula and looked less like a trading system and more like horror franchises.
A classic scary movie but irl.
THE NIGHTMARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, tariffs:
Say it three times and another ✨tariff✨ appears.
A U.S. food importer is suing the Trump administration over its Canada tariffs, arguing the White House dusted off a 1930s trade law to impose 50% duties and import bans on Canadian goods.
Why it matters: The lawsuit claims Congress, not the president, holds the keys to tariff policy and the tariffs are sucking certainty out of supply chains and disrupting business relationships built over the years.
Some republicans are even pushing back against President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada. Maine Senator Susan Collins secured some tariff relief for select Canadian imports for her state and Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers is calling for an end to the tariff fight.
Trick or treat?
Scream….ing for a trade deal
With U.S. midterms creeping closer, Canada and the U.S. are talking more often, but officials say a deal is still nowhere near ready for its final destination.
Mexico isn’t having a fun time either. Just when a U.S.–Mexico trade deal seemed headed for a happy ending, it turned into a sequel instead.
After months of negotiations and growing optimism, talks have hit a snag, with disputes over steel, aluminum and auto tariffs refusing to stay buried🪦.
The Poll-tergeist is here👻
A POLITICO poll surveyed Americans and Canadians, and the results depend on who you gonna call?
- America:
- 26% of Americans surveyed said Trump was right to impose new tariffs on Canada
- 56% thought they were wrong
- Canada:
- 71% of Canadians backed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to retaliate
Some MAGA voters said Trump was right to raise tariffs but should have waited until after the midterms👀
The canada trade project
Practical Trade🪄
Sometimes the real magic isn’t true love. It’s a signed trade agreement.
The largest Team Canada trade delegation in 30 years visited India this month and walked out with a bag of about 30 commercial partnerships worth $300 million.
What’s in the candy bag🍭?
- A new partnership between the airports in Vancouver and Bengaluru, potentially paving the way for direct flights
- Fairfax Financials’ nearly $8 billion acquisition of a majority stake in Indian bank IDBI
- McCain Foods’ acquisition of India’s Falcon Agrifriz Foods’ frozen potato🥔 business
- Momentum toward a Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which both sides hope to finalize by December 11-12
- This is also when Prime Minister Modi will be visiting Canada
- Lower tariffs on pulses and potash
With 1.4 billion people and one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, India is a market Canada can’t overlook.
The Turkish delight before Christmas
A first bilateral trip by a Canadian Prime Minister to Türkiye to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought in a strategic partnership that includes:
- Stronger cooperation on energy, mining, defence and security
- New opportunities in aerospace, advanced technologies and critical minerals
- A push to attract Turkish investment into Canada
- Ongoing negotiations toward a Canada-Türkiye free trade agreement
Turns out the Turkish delight was market access all along🍬📊.
Back from beyond the EU grave?
Ahead of the Canada-EU summit taking place in Montreal was that the much hyped “associate membership” title might have just been buried…
…or was it? Dun dun dun
I guess it wasn’t.
Post-EU Summit, the title seems like it was resurrected, but no one can quite put their finger on what it means or how it’ll work.
EU leaders described it as the closest relationship possible short of a full membership.
Ottawa and Brussels have until June 2027 to figure it out.
Aside from that, Canada and the EU used the Montreal summit to lock in new agreements on
- 🌐Digital trade
- ⚒️Critical minerals
- 💻Supercomputing
- 🤝Ukraine support and investment cooperation
WELCOME TO TRADE-O-WEENTOWN🎃
Something strategic this way comes
The UK and Oman are sticking to a tried-and-true spell: protect shipping lanes, keep trade flowing, and try to prevent instability.
During Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s UK visit, London rolled out the red carpet and spotlighted Oman’s strategic position beside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy shipments and trade.
Here’s what hocus pocused during the visit🧙♂️:
- New opportunities for UK and GCC free trade agreement
- Stronger UK-Oman cooperation on diplomacy, defence and advanced technologies
- Keep trade safe and flowing
The conjuring…of a free trade deal:
After 14 years of stop-start negotiations, Vietnam and the EFTA bloc – Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein – have finally conjured up a free trade deal.
What’s included?
- 📉Lower or eliminated tariffs on industrial, fish and agricultural products
- 📈Greater access for goods and services
- 🤝Cooperation on intellectual property and sustainable development
- 💲More than 98% of Norwegian exports to Vietnam set to become tariff-free within seven years
Casper materialized faster than this trade deal.
in conclusion
Well, that’s the end of the spooky szn marathon. Credits are rolling, but if the post-credit scene taught us anything, it’s that nothing is ever truly over and a sequel is already in production.
See you next month.
Here are a few recommended readings:
