Analysis February 16, 2026

The Trade Brief: Chaotic Plays

Sarah Alrifai – Digital Communications Strategist, Business Council of Canada

Canada’s Place in the World Global Affairs International Trade North America

The world economy right now feels like Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show. Hit after hit, wild energy, and no one quite knows what’s next. As he says: “Nadie sabe lo que va a pasar mañana.” (Nobody knows what’s going to happen tomorrow.) Honestly? Accurate.

So what actually unfolded over the past few weeks?

Mood swings everywhere: tariffs flying, threats escalating, alliances doing soft launches and hard breakups.
India’s main-character arc: mega deals, strategic flexes, and playing both sides like a seasoned pro.
Canada’s quiet grind: Arctic subs, EV swaps, mineral moves, and diplomacy that’s low-drama but high-stakes.

Now, let’s get into the details.

GLOBAL MOOD SWINGS

Tariff Tango 💃

Two Steps forward…

U.S. + Bangladesh: a new trade deal cuts tariffs by 1%, gives Bangladeshi apparel a VIP lane with U.S. cotton and fibers, and opens doors for American farm and industrial exports.

U.S. + Guatemala: the two countries signed a reciprocal trade deal following their November framework agreement.

A few steps back…

U.S.+ France: President Donald Trump threatened 200% tariffs on French wine after President Emmanuel Macron declined to join the “Board of Peace.” POTUS really said “No board, no Bordeaux” hah 😂.

U.S. + Iran: The U.S. Administration threatened any country trying to trade with Iran with 25% tariffs. oop.

U.S.+ Canada: The aerospace industry caught a stray. President Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and hit sales with a 50% tariff.

U.S.+ Mexico + Cuba: Tariffs could be ramping up on any country supplying Cuba with oil, leaving Mexico’s oil shipments to Cuba and President Sheinbaum in an awkward position. 😬

100% tariffs, 0% chill

President Trump warned ⚠️ Canada that if it closes a free trade deal with China, it’s getting slapped with 100% tariffs.

Translation: the economic equivalent of getting unfollowed and blocked.

The swap: Canada plans to ease tariffs on Chinese EVs. In turn, China will lower duties on Canadian farm goods. 🚗🔄️🌱 Classic trade swap.

But President Trump’s not having it. He’s worried Canada could be used as a “drop-off port” for Chinese goods sneaking into America.

This piles onto an already messy tariff fight.

(FYI, President Trump is set to travel to Beijing at the beginning of April to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.)

Mineral Monopoly🪨🔋 🧲

The Critical Minerals club: the Trump Administration is now pitching a new critical minerals trading bloc with allies to reduce reliance on China.

⭐Fun fact: China actually controls 70% of rare earth mining and 90% of processing.

Who’s on board? France, UK, Japan, and EU. Greenland and Denmark ghosted (IYKYK).

Why?:

🔀Diversify supply chains
🔒Lock in stable investment
🏃‍♂️‍➡️🚫Make sure no one tries to hoard or sneak off to buy cheap minerals.

Canada’s take? Cute idea, terrible timing. We’re playing it chill and not signing any single sector deals, instead waiting for the USMCA review and renewal.

Kinda fair ngl.

……which brings us to USMCA🇺🇸🇲🇽🇨🇦

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick each sat down with Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard in D.C to kick off talks on tweaking USMCA.

They’re talking:

💪tougher rules of origin,
🤝teaming up on critical minerals, and
✂️trimming non-tariff barriers

Canada’s in the loop too, PM Carney says talks will start in the coming weeks. Canada’s side is “finished” with its prep work and issued a ‘what we heard’ summary from last fall’s CUSMA consultations.

The PM also told the House of Commons that it is the intent of all three countries to renew and extend the agreement by July 1st. Will Canada Day be CUSMA Day?

INDIA’S MAIN CHARACTER ERA

EU + India: The mother of all deals

After a long 20 years of back and forth, a free-trade agreement between the EU and India has finally been drawn.

Tariffs are being cut from 110%->10% on 250,000 vehicles,
Wine, beer, and olive oil will see a tariff slash,
India gets improved investment and access to EU markets

Why this matters? Two billion people, approx. 25% of global GDP and a big market for India’s exporters hurt by U.S. tariffs.

🏆A win is a win.

India +U.S.: the stepmother of all deals

Let’s break down this deal, though because a lot is happening😮‍💨:

India’s farmers are gearing up for nationwide protests and strikes over a trade deal that some say favours U.S. crops over their own.
President Trump pulls the plug on the 25% tariffs on Indian goods (cutting it to 18%) because India will make an effort to curb purchases of Russian oil.
- It has started buying Venezuelan crude oil.
India commits to buying $500 billion of U.S. products over 5 years– including energy, tech, aircraft and more and reduce U.S. goods tariffs to 0.
India opens the door🚪to its agriculture sector to cheaper U.S. imports such as soy, tree nuts and some fruits.
- While this means lower 📉 feed and food costs for farmers and consumers, it could also mean that foreign competition grows 📈 and domestic smallholders feel more pressure.
India’s farmers are gearing up for nationwide protests and strikes over a trade deal that some say favours U.S. crops over their own.

Agriculture is 20% of India’s GDP and worth about $580 billion to $650 billion and one can say a politically sensitive sector.

CANADA 🤝?

Ottawa sees Seoul

Canada and South Korea are cozying up on EVs and clean tech as the Trump Administration threatens new tariffs.

They signed a non-binding MOU to boost Korean investment in Canada on

⚡EVs
🔋Batteries
⚒️Critical Minerals
🚗Future mobility

Battle of the boats

Canada vs Germany vs South Korea: Canada’s playing hardball for 12 Arctic subs, pitting South Korea’s Hanwha against Germany-Norway’s Thyssenkrupp.

Ottawa’s not just buying off the shelf; they’re forming Canadian partnerships in steel, AI, satellites, clean energy, and even automotive co-operation.

Sellers are saying basically, “buy our subs, and we’ll give you a slice of other industries.” 😉

Sub purchase = economic hack.

Germany leans on NATO ties and decades-long Arctic fleet partnerships, while Hanwha’s fast production and Canadian industrial deals make it a serious contender.

May the best economic deal win.

Corn, Cars, China, Consulates, Charm & Carney:

PM Carney’s visit to China wasn’t just to sight see, he brought back some souvenirs.

Carney arranged for China to cut some agricultural tariffs.

🌽Canola seed cut from 75.8% to 15% on March 1
🫛🐟Canola meal, peas and seafood= tariffs go bye bye
🚗China gets a quota of EVs into Canada at 6.1% tariff. ~49,000 cars, <3% of total market, but ~26–29% of EV sales. Quota could hit 70,000 in 5 years.

TL;DR: Canada opens the door🚪 to Chinese EVs. Cheap rides, potential jobs, Canadian farmers, fishermen, and ranchers get back key Chinese customers.

Canada + Qatar: PM Carney was the first Canadian PM to visit Qatar, ready to charm Qatari billionaires into funding Canadian projects by sealing a Foreign Investment Protection Agreement (FIPA)