Energy Shock Meets Opportunity in North America

As published on Substack

CERAWeek is often described as “the Super Bowl of energy.” The massive conference, held annually in Houston, Texas, brings together thousands of business leaders, politicians and media from around the globe.

It’s always a must-attend event for people in the energy sector, but this year the conversation was even more relevant since it took place at a time of energy upheaval due to ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

More than 8,000 participants from roughly 85 countries were seized with the outsized impact the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is having on global energy markets. The complete closure of the Straight of Hormuz, a vital artery supplying roughly 20 per cent of the world’s energy supply, will have longstanding implications on energy prices and affordability.

On a net basis, the war in Iran has created the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. It’s equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the turmoil caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – a fact recently reported by the International Energy Agency.

Canada’s participation at this year’s conference was strong and noticeable. The federal and several provincial governments attending the conference were aligned in positioning the country as a reliable supplier of energy. Canada’s approach was balanced and pragmatic:

• Our resource endowment will help preserve and create relationships with trading partners.
• Our policy will be energy agnostic and will leverage our depth in oil and gas, critical minerals and nuclear technology.

This year’s CERAWeek saw a more cooperative tone by Canada concerning the importance of energy security in North America. In his remarks to the U.S. Secretaries of Energy and Interior, Canada’s federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson advocated for a return to the concept of “Fortress North America,” positioning the free flow of energy and resources across the continent as a prerequisite to achieving energy supremacy and to win the race for AI and advanced technologies. Renewed interest in Keystone XL and investment plans to expand throughput on TMX and southbound pipelines underscore the potential for Canada to serve US and global markets.

The fragility of the Canadian economy accompanied by the rising affordability challenges rocking Canadians underscores the urgent need to dispel uncertainty related to continental trade. With governments in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico broadly aligned on the need to unleash their full energy potential, advancing a common energy policy across North America is entirely sensible.

But winning a global race for energy supremacy requires more than public facing messaging. Last year the Business Council of Canada, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial issued a report calling for a new North America energy alliance that supercharges the flow of unfettered energy and resource trade at continental scale. The starting point for this report is a shared understanding that the combination of resource endowment, best-in-class capital markets and world leading innovation and research capacity can position North America as a safe and reliable global supplier of energy and technologies needed to weather the storm caused by geopolitical upheaval and resource scarcity.

Our recommendations provide a roadmap for operationalizing Fortress North America in the near term.

First, Ministers and Secretaries responsible for energy and resource development should commit to hosting an energy summit to develop a common vision to advance North American interests. The last meeting of this kind was held roughly ten years ago when global economic growth was accelerating and stock markets around the world were hitting record highs, a far cry from where the world is today.

Second, Canada, the United States and Mexico should also commit to sharing more intelligence information about threats to North America’s energy systems. While a war targeted at energy infrastructure is raging in the Middle East, it would be naive to believe that North America is immune to attacks – both physical and digital – to its energy systems.

We need a more structured and systematic approach to sharing information about risks, threats and collective responses to attacks on our energy systems. Such an approach can safeguard North Americans’ access to reliable energy sources and futureproof each country’s ability to trade with its allies and partners.

Third, all three countries should work together to develop an energy outlook for North America. Each country already projects how its energy production will meet (or fall short of meeting) the demands of its citizens. What’s missing is a common outlook paired with a risk assessment that identifies energy scarcity and affordability challenges both within and outside North America. A common outlook can provide an important basis for discussing the cross-border infrastructure requirements needed to offset energy security challenges and lower costs for North Americans. It can also help enable foreign policy goals concerning energy trade.

CERAWeek 2026 provided a timely platform to discuss how we can create new, or reforge existing, alliances for a safer and more prosperous world. A stronger North America has unrivaled potential to succeed on the global stage. What we need is a plan that improves coordination to get us there.