The Trade Brief: Commitments pending
The month of May had a specific kind of energy where nothing was formally on “fire” but everything felt shaky and unpredictable.
One minute there is a Diet Coke shortage sparking low-level panic among its beloved drinkers, the next is Hantavirus and Ebolacausing alarm mid-season, and somehow Real Madrid flirted with an existential crisis and potential collapse? Like…what?
And yet with all that noise, one thing remained impressively consistent. Trade
Here is the May lowdown:
- PM Carney sells Canada Strong to the U.S. in NYC
- Trade checks and balances: surpluses are back
- Canada’s roster: Canada is broadening its trade circle
- USMCA: terms and conditions applied
- U.S. circle-back diplomacy
- Tariffs: still here, still controversial
Canada sells Canada strong to U.S. in NYC
Prime Minister Mark Carney was in the Big Apple 🗽this week to sell Canada to the Economic Club of New York, where he unveiled a new brand collab between his own Canada Strong and President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again.
The speech was the third time in two weeks that the PM and his government have talked about Canada putting proposals on the table for closer cooperation and integration in priority strategic sectors.
Trade checks and balances
Something we haven’t seen much of recently is “surplus” and “trade” together in one sentence.
But it looks like some countries are having a comeback.
In March, 🇨🇦Canada saw its first trade surplus in six months, but energy and gold did the heavy lifting 🏋️♂️.
- Merchandise-trade surplus: $1.78B
- Value of goods exported: up 8.5%, bringing it to $72.77B
What’s behind the rebound?
- 🚢Non-U.S. exports hit a record high
- 🛢️Oil exports surged as tensions in the Middle East shook global energy market
- 🪙Gold shipments jumped, especially to the U.K.
- 🚗Trade with the U.S. strengthened, helped by crude oil and vehicle exports
🇲🇽Mexico had a nice $4.52B trade surplus in April.
- Exports jumped 32.6% from April 2025
- Imports also climbed 24.1%
Here’s why:
- ⚙️Manufacturing exports surged 34%, reinforcing the nearshoring trend
- ⛏️Mining exports spiked 71%
- 🛢️Higher oil prices added export value
- 🚢Imports rose as factories kept buying inputs and machinery
🇨🇳China’s back in growth mode. Exports rose 14.1% in April.
- ⚙️High-end manufacturing led the rebound, especially electronics and machinery
- 🚢Imports climbed 25.3%, slightly easing but still strong
- 📈Trade surplus widened to $84.8B, back to near post-pandemic highs
🇰🇷South Korea’s exports surged 48% in April, powered by a semiconductor boom driven by AI demand.
- 📈Trade surplus reached $23.8B, led by semiconductors
- 🚢Exports +48% to $85.9B
- 📱Chip exports nearly tripled on AI infrastructure demand
Canada’s roster
Canada is picking up the pace with trade deals and not putting all its eggs in one geopolitical trade basket🧺.
Mercosur, India, and ASEAN are all on the roster this year.
🇮🇳India
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led “the largest ever Indian business delegation” to Canada to work on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and double bilateral trade by 2030.
Refresher: CEPA would allow for expanded trade and investment in industries such as agriculture, natural resources, energy, etc.
🇩🇪Germany
“Prost” Is probably what they said when they made this LNG deal.
Canada will be selling a 20-year supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the Germans to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.
Shipments should begin in the early 2030’s.
✨Canada 🤝soft-launching its energy superpower era ✨
🇰🇷South Korea / 🇩🇪Germany
If the Hanwha KSS-III YouTube ads haven’t hit your ad intervals, then they weren’t working hard enough.
South Korea literally sailed into the west coast with warships to pitch itself for Canada’s next submarine fleet⚓ because subtlety is cancelled.
Germany is also eyeing the same deal and came to Canada to make its case.
[hehe, Canada must be feeling bonita💅 right now fielding these multiple high-stakes offers.]
May the best sub win.
usmca: terms and conditions
Mexico and the U.S. had a chat this week about the USMCA.
Top of the agenda: Autos🚗
The U.S. is pushing for stricter auto rules of origin and tougher steel requirements (to prevent transshipped steel coming into North America).
sigh…😒
U.S. “circle back” diplomacy
In our last Trade Brief, we said to watch for the meeting in 🇨🇳China between 🇺🇸U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and well, it happened…
…and it felt like a corporate networking event.
Here’s the TL;DR:
- President Trump arrived with a VERY Silicon Valley-coded delegation.
- (If you haven’t seen the Elon Musk memes, here you go. Is he in his #Influencerera?)
- Deals were spoken about, not ratified
- Both sides came in with shopping lists
The U.S. came in hot with demands like:
- ⛓️Supply chain reliability
- 🪨Rare earth minerals
- 🤝Calmer trade relationship
China wanted:
- ✈️Jet engines
- 🔌Semiconductors
- 🧾Tariff relief
- 💭A rethink on Taiwan policy
What actually happened:
- 💲China is going to buy 200 Boeing jets
- 💲U.S. added to cart soybean exports
The whole meeting gave a “let’s circle back/put a pin in it” energy.
(But President Xi was invited to the White House in September. So stay tuned for the sequel.)
U.S. & India: almost there
Canada is not the only one dining 🍽️ at the India table. The U.S. pulled up a chair.
A group of U.S. officials is set to visit India at the beginning of June to push some stalled agreements that boost U.S. energy investment, agriculture and market barriers.
The Quad: back in action
The Quad is like the name you name that group chat made up of four people on WhatsApp that hasn’t done anything iconic yet to justify a name change.
The U.S., Japan, Australia and India make up this fantastic four (also known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) which unveiled $20 billion in funding to secure a critical minerals supply chain.
Why is this significant?
Well, having any single country control the ingredients for batteries, AI, chips, EVs was NOT the best long-term strategy, so the Quad is going to collaborate.
tariffs,still breathing
Plan B got benched
Remember President Trump’s Plan B tariffs?
The 10% global tariffs that were supposed to replace the ones ruled unlawful?
Yeah well, the U.S. federal court also ruled these ones unlawful.
The Administration is expected to appeal this decision and find other ways to implement tariffs.
Plan C loading…
Canadian airbag:
Canada is in damage control mode and is handing out $1.5 billion in relief for steel, aluminum and copper producers hit by the 50% U.S. tariffs.
Why?
Well this is Canada absorbing the shock of the U.S. tariffs on industrial metals to prevent a. layoffs and b. financial pressure.
WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR IN June?
- June 1st : USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer reports to Congress on the Trump Administration’s plans for USMCA
- June 15-17: G7 Leaders’ Summit in Évian, France
- June 23-26: Team Canada Trade Mission to Japan
IN CONCLUSION
Right now, global trade feels like the first week of Love Island: lots of chats, plenty of flirting, zero commitment.
Give it a few weeks and alliances will form, someone will get dumped, and June might finally bring a deal worth locking in.
Here are a few recommended readings:
