Analysis April 1, 2026

The Trade Brief: Trade is giving…uncertainty

Sarah Alrifai – Digital Communications Strategist, Business Council of Canada

Canada’s Place in the World Global Affairs International Trade North America

Since our last brief, the global mood board has taken a sharp turn: geopolitical tensions are spiking, winter won’t log off, oil is being gatekept, and diplomacy seems to be going through a full identity crisis.

What a time to be alive, especially for Millennials and Gen Z, who were promised world peace and got first-class tickets to global chaos instead.

The upside? In trade, turbulence = relevance. Geopolitics is shaping markets in real time, giving us plenty to unpack:

Canada’s lowkey power moves
USMCA’s fine print drama
U.S.’s tariffs with a side of chips
Europe’s deals with safeguards attached
WTO’s existential crisis

Have a seat, the March tea is being served.

Canada: Quietly everywhere, loudly relevant

Canada is doing the quiet hustle: MOUs 📜, handshakes🤝, repeat 🔁.

Canada + U.S.:

Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson is keeping it cozy with Uncle Sam 🇺🇸 by reinforcing energy ties, emphasizing collaboration on exports and critical minerals.

Here’s how:

Minerals on deck: Uranium, potash, aluminum, and gallium.
Energy = security: Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure have made Canadian exports more critical than ever.
Team Canada: Federal-Alberta energy projects stay on track, deadlines are flexible but goals are locked in.

Bottom line: Canada is using energy and minerals to strengthen North American ties, manage global volatility and signal stability to partners.

Canada + Mexico:

Canada and Mexico are stepping up bilateral coordination to strengthen ties and diversify trade.

A new economic action plan, involving 400+ businesses and government officials, is in the works.

Focus areas:

🪨Critical minerals
⚡Energy
🏗️Infrastructure
⛓️Securing supply chains
💰Attracting investment
🛡️Building regional resilience

Where Canada brings capital and expertise, Mexico brings scale and manufacturing muscle.💪

Canada + China:

Following talks led by PM Mark Carney, Canada and China are quietly 🤫 hitting the reset button.

✅Cutting tariffs
✅Reopening key markets
✅Boosting exports (hello canola comeback)

All while keeping the broader strategy focused on ✨diversification✨.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is in China building on Mark Carney’s trade reset, pushing on deepening investment and exports, while keeping an eye on supply chain risks and geopolitical pressure.

Canada + India:

PM Carney and PM Modi are leaning into what matters: Critical Minerals.

They signed a critical minerals MOU that targets development, processing, and secures supply chains powering EVs, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing.

They also signed MOUs on a bunch of other things like:

🌍Cultural cooperation
⚡Renewable energy collaboration
💻Tech and innovation partnership with Australia
🛠️A commercial uranium supply deal with Cameco

USMCA: most talked about, least agreed upon

Everyone wants USMCA to continue; they just need to agree on the fine print.

The good news? Things are starting to move.

Mexico’s Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer kicked off the first USMCA review talks, setting the stage for July 1 decisions.

⁉️What each country actually wants (aka the fine print drama):

🇨🇦Canada: Long-term certainty, stability, predictability, and relief from tariffs.

🇲🇽Mexico: Fix trade imbalances, tighten rules of origin, and lock in more resilient supply chains.

🇺🇸U.S.: Economic security, stronger labour standards, and clearer access to energy markets

Important to note that Mexico is the U.S.’s top trading partner.
💲535 billion in exports
💲873 billion in total trade

Public consensus? Surprisingly aligned.🤨

Canadians get it: North American trade = prosperity.

In a survey from pollster Nik Nanos, Canadians think preserving the deal matters to both the economy and personal finances.

U.S. farmers are also saying – Don’t fumble the ball.

40 agriculture groups are sounding the alarm, cautioning that not moving forward with the agreement would tank rural economies.📉

Exports to Canada and Mexico drive $149 billion in domestic activity, boost wages, and enable thriving local businesses.

And in a rare plot twist, Senate Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing: The North American trade deal works and drives jobs, investments and rural exports.

The U.S.: tariffs w/ a side of chips

Good news (kind of ): The U.S. Supreme Court scrapped President Donald Trump’s sweeping global IEEPA tariffs, which included some non-USMCA-compliant Canadian goods.

Don’t celebrate yet.

Bad news: Tariffs remain on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos

POTUS sets sights on Beijing 🇨🇳

After an 8-year pause, President Trump is heading back to China.

Reciprocal visit: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected in Washington later in 2026.

Dates locked: President Trump will visit Beijing May 14-15, the first U.S. presidential trip in eight years (slightly postponed due to the war in Iran).

Chips. Not the snack kind.

When policymakers say “chips” right now, they’re not talking about Doritos.

They’re talking about semiconductors, AI chips, and the increasingly intense effort to control who gets access to the brains of the global economy.

In Washington, the consensus is hardening: export controls on advanced chips aren’t strict enough and allies need to get on the same page.

Why it matters: Semiconductors are becoming the frontline of a trade war, replacing tariffs with technology controls.

Is digital trade officially the new tariff war?

EU: trading but with guard rails

EU x Australia  finally make it official:

After 2 years of “circling back”, the EU and Australia have signed a free trade deal:

Wine, seafood, and horticulture duty-free
55% of 30,600 tons of Aussie red meat also tariff-free
New defence partnership and EU research ties on cybersecurity, maritime security and counter-terrorism.
Raw materials: lithium and tungsten supply secured for the EU.

Takeaways: Both sides want to diversify trade and reduce reliance on China and avoid U.S. tariffs.

EU x USA playing it safe:

The European Parliament approved the EU-U.S. trade deal with new clauses (inspired by the Greenland spat) to block U.S. moves that harm EU interests:

15% tariffs stay, avoiding shockwaves.
Safeguards trigger if the U.S. acts shady or undermines EU goals.

Cooperation 🤝 contingency.

WTO: the existential chapter

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is kind of having a midlife crisis… and yes, the meeting agendas are screaming “identity issues.”

Ahead of its 14th Ministerial Conference, the U.S. clocked the WTO by dropping a report saying the organization needs to change to stay relevant. Their message? The system is:

Too slow
Too rigid
Out of sync with a world run on reciprocity, national security, and power plays

At the same time, nearly 40 countries, including the EU and CPTPP members, are quietly exploring ways to save the WTO, or build something new if it can’t be salvaged.

The motivation? U.S. unilateralism, paralysis in dispute settlement, and growing disagreement over the WTO’s core rules.

The WTO is still alive… barely. Its authority? Slipping like your thoughts when someone asks you about yourself.

Here’s where things get interesting (ish).

Partial win: 66 WTO members agreed to move ahead with the world’s first baseline digital trade rules, bypassing opposition from countries blocking consensus. Instead of folding the deal into the WTO’s dusty rulebook, they’re doing it themselves – covering countries that account for roughly 70% of global trade.

No win: The e-commerce mortarium, which is roughly renewed every two years and was expiring this month.

Countries were set to vote on extending the e-commerce tariff ban, but talks ended in deadlock and the moratorium expired.💀

What even is the e-commerce Moratorium?
No customs duties on digital stuff – think downloads, streaming, e-books, software, video games. It started in 1998 to help the internet economy boom.

Why talks collapsed:

U.S. & friends: The United States, backed by many developed economies, wanted either a permanent extension or a longer-term one (several years).
Brazil and others: Brazil resisted the forever deal and pushed for a shorter or fixed term extension and ultimately blocked the consensus.
India & revenue anxiety: Some other countries had opposed open-ended extensions in the first place because they lose tariff revenue that could fund infrastructure and digital access.

What next?

Well negotiators ran out of time and talks ended exactly how you’d expect: no deal, unresolved and everyone annoyed. It will now be taken up at the WTO headquarters in Geneva.