The Trade Brief: Into the Upside Down
The Upside Down isn’t fiction anymore — it’s the world of ✨global trade✨ for the past few weeks.
Welcome to the first Trade Brief of 2026.
From December chaos to early January Demogorgon-level shocks, here is what’s emerging from the upside down:
- Chapter One: The Vanishing of Nicolás Maduro
- Chapter Two: The Flayed (by Tariffs)
- Chapter Three: Dear EU
- Chapter Four: The Bridge
- Chapter Five: The USMCA Club
Honestly, at this point the headlines read less like trade updates and more like episode titles. Each one has a fresh plot twist that guarantees there is a sequel coming next month.
*cue Stranger Things theme song*
Starting the season strong with the biggest story that kicked off 2026:
CHAPTER ONE: The Vanishing of Nicolás Maduro
Before the events of the first weekend of January, the U.S. was lowkey already hinting in December at possible moves in Venezuela by asking U.S. companies if they’d be interested in migrating their offices back to the country if President Nicolás Maduro set his email response to “OOO”(out of office).
Fast forward⏩ to January 3rd, and President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were arrested by American special forces in an overnight raid that had been in the works for a while.
Those looking for answers looked to this viral clip.
(Don’t recall this episode of The Office tbh. Neither does Jim.)
What happens now?
The U.S. will “run” Venezuela and aim to put American oil companiesin charge of the nation’s crude oil reserves until there is a “safe” leadership transition. The U.S. plans to sell 30-50 million barrels of oil at market price.
They say this will benefit both Americans and Venezuelans. We’ll see.
What does this mean for Canada 🇨🇦?
The move puts pressure on Canadian crude oil because it could mean more competition.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says it’s urgent: a new pipeline to the BC coast could get 1M barrels/day to Asian markets, reducing reliance on the U.S.
- PM Carney agrees: diversification is key. Canadian oil remains low-risk and increasingly cleaner with carbon capture. China could be a growing buyer.
🇨🇦🛢️Canada’s dominance in U.S. heavy crude isn’t going anywhere… yet. But a Venezuelan comeback could mean lower prices and tighter margins down the line.
The message is clear: dependence = vulnerability
Ottawa needs to diversify exports, secure new markets and beef up its security or else Washington fills the vacuum.
Bottom line: Venezuela’s oil rebound is a wake-up call. Canada must export smarter, westward, and faster.
CHAPTER TWO: The Flayed (by tariffs)
🍝Al dente diplomacy: Relief is on the table for Italian pasta makers. The U.S. is slashing anti-dumping duties on pasta from 92% to the lower double digits for certain producers.
🛋️Tariffs take a seat: New furniture price hikes have been delayed for a year, keeping tariffs at 25% instead of jumping to the 30s.
[Your furniture and dinner just caught a breather, so if you’ve been eyeing👀 that sofa or plotting a kitchen glow-up, consider this your financial soft launch.]
🥇🕶️VIP tariffs incoming: A new House bill could let the President cut or waive tariffs for “trusted” importers who play by the rules, support U.S. manufacturing, and keep supply chains tight. Bad actors and old tariffs still blocked🚫.
🇲🇽Mexico raises the wall
Mexico slaps tariff rates between 5-50% on 1,463 imports from non-trade agreement countries like China, India, Vietnam, Brazil and more.
- 🚗EVs, 🪑furniture, 🏗️steel, 💄cosmetics, 🧸toys…basically everything except frijoles.
But why such measures?
- 💼Protect 350,000 jobs
- 📈Boost domestic production to cover 50% of local demand
- 💰Generate 30B pesos/year
- 🛜Send a signal to USMCA partners and align with the Trump admin’s trade policy
China🇨🇳 isn’t thrilled, calling the move “unilateral and protectionist,” but Mexico insists it’s not a personal attack and it’s just because they don’t have a trade agreement.
CHAPTER THREE: Dear EU
What’s going on with you?
Remember that EU +Mercosur deal that was near finalization after like 25+ years of hard work?
Yeah, well, it stalled again⏸️.
The deal was facing a backlash from European farmers and is facing political opposition in the European Parliament and some national capitals, notably France.
But wait!🫸
After some sweet-talking, bureaucracy and 45 billion euros, it’s finally inching towards the finish line.
CHAPTER FOUR: The Bridge
You know that saying: “your network is your net worth”? Well, Canada is networking reeeaaal hard….but the rest of the world isn’t exactly slacking either.
🇨🇳China Check-In
This week, Prime Minister Carney is in Beijing, China, the first Prime Minister’s visit in nearly a decade, to meet with President Xi Jinping and begin rebuilding ties with the country. Talks of trade, energy, agriculture and security are on the agenda.
This comes years after the whole Huawei incident, but we’re not going to talk about that. 2026 is all about letting bygones be bygones 🤝.
⚠️But tread cautiously: USMCA side-eyes any shady flings with “non-market economies” and could ghost the deal if things go sideways.
Don’t sweat it though. PM Carney’s got this; no wires are getting tripped.
- (Non-market economy: where the government controls prices and costs, so goods sold there don’t reflect their true market value.)
🇬🇧UK Truce, innit
The U.K and Canada are looking to get into a serious strategic partnership covering trade, AI, defence, energy, and critical minerals.
Looks like they finally buried the hatchet🪓 from 2024 that caused British car makers and dairy exporters to pay higher Canadian tariffs.
This goes to show that when global trade starts moving mad, the mandem link up.
🇮🇳India Inc.
B.C. Premier David Eby and Minister of Jobs and Economic Growth Ravi Kahlon are in India to promote B.C. businesses and industries.
- Side note: B.C is actually India’s top Canadian trading partner in forestry, clean energy, mining and tech. For those who like numbers: $2.1 billion worth of trade in 2024, which is 25% of Canada’s exports to India.
But why India?
Well…India is projected to be the world’s #3 economy📈.
And now everyone wants a piece of that pie🍰.
India🇮🇳 + Oman🇴🇲: sign a Free Trade Agreement to diversity exports
- 98% of Indian goods get zero-duty access to Oman and India cuts tariffs 78% on Omani goods
India🇮🇳 + New Zealand🇳🇿: finalize a Free Trade Agreement
- 98% of New Zealand’s exports will see lower tariffs📉 * Dairy not included
- NZ to invest $20 billion in India over 15 years
- Easier entry and work/study visas for Indian professionals and students
India🇮🇳 + EU🇪🇺: Free Trade Agreement expected to conclude January 2026
- Income boost would come in at around $3.5-$5.1 billion euros for both sides
- EU → India: $140B in goods (11.5% of India’s trade)
- India → EU: 2.4% of EU’s goods trade
India is showing signs of continued economic strength – 7% growth – and more and more trade relationships but jobs, private investment, and broad-based impact will determine if this is a new growth era or just a temporary calm. Some are cautiously optimistic.
🇰🇷Seoul Searching
South Korea is trying to bridge between two of its regional neighbours to make trade (k-)pop😉.
South Korea🇰🇷 + China🇨🇳: SK President Lee visited Beijing to lock in $273B in trade deals and sign 15 cooperation agreements with China–which has experienced rising tensions with Japan.
The Chinese sought to appeal to President Lee by zeroing in on the K-Pop craze which is also a major cultural export.
South Korea🇰🇷 + Japan🇯🇵: Not to be outdone, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi fulfilled President Lee’s lifelong ambition to be a drummer with a diplomatic duet of K-Pop beats.
CHAPTER FIVE: The USMCA Club
The gift🎁 that keeps on negotiating.
Here’s the monthly update on the longest-running spin-off:
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the U.S. is still undecided on a 16-year renewal of the agreement, but Canada and the United States are preparing to launch discussions mid- January.
Observers noted that Ambassador Greer’s wish list contained no new surprises, leaving many cautiously optimistic for the year ahead.
IN CONCLUSION
Buckle up, because if history is any guide, 2026 is going to be a season with too many plotlines. But for now, enjoy season 1.
After all, rumours are that 2026 might be the new 2016.
