Why Mark Carney’s China Trip Matters to Canada’s Energy Future
As published in Policy Magazine
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China this week represented a meaningful step in sustaining momentum for Canada’s energy sector.
The two-day trip resulted in a formal energy pact with Beijing, where the two countries pledged to establish a ministerial dialogue to explore opportunities from oil and gas, to nuclear and renewables.
It was an important step toward forging closer energy ties with the Asian powerhouse and couldn’t come at a more opportune time, particularly for Canada’s oil sector, which is seeking to build on the momentum created by the recent federal–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU).
Public support for the oil sector is strong and growing, while investor confidence is beginning to return. But nothing is guaranteed. Slow or poor execution risks squandering what is currently a rare alignment among Alberta, the federal government, industry, and public opinion.
And maintaining that momentum requires quick work on three fronts: securing export markets in places like China, accelerating regulatory reform, and strengthening collaboration with industry.
Locking in demand from Asia — or even securing early signals of long-term commercial interest in new Canadian supply — would strengthen the economic case not just for new pipeline capacity, but for the tens of billions of dollars in upstream investment required to expand production.
On regulation, Ottawa’s MOU with Alberta creates space for rapid progress in reducing that burden, including resolving the on-again, off-again dispute over jurisdiction for major project approvals.
Alberta and the federal government have set an April 1 timeline to negotiate a cooperation agreement on impact assessment that could pave the way for a system built on the principle of one project, one process, one decision — the gold standard for unlocking the next wave of energy projects. Getting there will require difficult compromises.
Canada’s efforts to broaden its global customer base should complement, not undermine, the project of building a strong regional energy partnership within North America.
The third front – collaboration with industry – is also just as important. The creation of the Major Projects Office is a step in the right direction. It suggests that private-sector discipline will inform policy choices of national importance. But it is a temporary model.
What’s missing is a permanent, structured forum that embeds private-sector expertise in the federal government’s approach to major projects — one focused explicitly on accelerating delivery in the national interest.
Policymakers can look to the United States for a compelling example of what can be achieved when public and private sectors align around common goals.
The National Petroleum Council, an industry association that advises the U.S. government, recently produced a 200-page report outlining the near-term legislative, regulatory, and administrative reforms required to accelerate infrastructure projects in the national interest. There is no equivalent in Canada.
Canada’s efforts to broaden its global customer base should complement, not undermine, the project of building a strong regional energy partnership within North America.
The United States will remain Canada’s largest oil buyer. Expanding Canadian supply into global markets is therefore in the economic interest of both countries and fully consistent with the logic of a North American energy alliance.
The federal-Alberta MOU marks an important step toward putting us in a strong position to benefit from a new world order defined by our ability to secure global market share for our critical resources. Carney’s trip to China represents an equally important step in building on that momentum.
We now need to keep making progress on the regulatory and collaboration front.
The potential impact of increased Venezuelan oil exports underscores once again the importance of getting Canadian energy policies right. But unlike in previous years, Canada is better prepared.
