The Trade Brief: 2025 Trade Wrapped

Welcome to the final Trade Brief of the year.

The edition where we sift through your 2025 “listening history” and discover after a full twelve months of trade beats and economic mood swings, that your listening age may not be 200 years old – but that’s sure what we feel like.   

After a tough year of tariff plot twists you didn’t ask for, USMCA tunes, and global investment remixes, we’re closing things out with a Wrapped-style recap.

• Most-streamed collaboration: USMCA, the cross-border collaboration that refuses to leave the charts.
• Genre you couldn’t escape: Tariffs; they dropped, broke the charts, and remixed themselves.
• Canada’s chart toppers: International investments, the tracks most slept on.  
• Top international hits: The tracks shaping the global buzz and markets.  

Consider this year-end recap of everything your economic algorithm thinks you should care about for the month.    

The USMCA is the track everyone had on repeat in North America.🔁 

If you’ve seen “USTR” pop up in your feed lately, it’s because Washington just wrapped three days of December hearings to inform the review of the continent’s trade pact.

Canadians were also invited to the hearings, including the Business Council of Canada. 😉

Now the USTR owes Congress a key report that will help us predict USMCA’s future… and everyone’s watching 👀 like it’s the season finale.

Why does this matter? The report kicks off the 2026 review and renewal where 🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇸 must decide whether to extend for an additional 16 years.

What happens if they don’t?

The USMCA review repeats as a playback loop every year until 2036 when, if still not extended, the deal would expire.

Technically, any country can withdraw from the agreement on 6 months’ notice if they don’t think it’s working for them.

….Talk about a cliffhanger…

Fortunately, USMCA is still a favourite on most people’s playlists, so history doesn’t look like it’ll repeat itself *ahem NAFTA ahem*

The vibe is really “fix it, don’t nuke it” especially when it comes from 75% of Americans who think the USMCA is actually good for the economy.

North America pressed pause on tensions ✋🛑

On a more recent note, FIFA brought together Canada, U.S. and Mexico, NOT for trade talks but for the World Cup draw in Washington, D.C.  

The leaders squeezed in a quick 45 min chat after the festivities.

Odds are they were probably processing the way Wayne Gretzky pronounced “North Macedonia”, “Jordan” and “Curaçao”.  

Can’t unhear it now.

 

Mexico’s relationship with the United States seems to be doing a bit better as Mexico became the U.S.’s top customer.  

Mexico’s Senate also approved hefty new tariffs on imports from China and other Asian countries.

Manufacturers shifting away from China have made Mexico the new Silicon Valley.

Canada, meanwhile, is still on the rocks (and we’re not talking about cocktails – and not just because of the continues U.S. booze ban in some provinces). 🍸

Old wounds over the Ontario government ad run deep, so PM Carney has had to pivot: protect industries and reposition them for the global economy. Moves include:    

• 25% tariffs on steel, rail subsidies, import limits to save the lumber and steel industries.  
• $500 million loan guarantee for softwood lumber
• Free Trade agreement countries outside of U.S. and Mexico tariff rate will change from 100%–>75%

This trade triangle is more dramatic than a telenovela.  

On the bright side, the Trump administration still hasn’t enacted the extra 10% tariffs on Canada because of the ad soo…a win is a win🏆🏆

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Tariff rewind?

Polls suggest low and middle-income U.S. families are really feeling the heat with groceries and utilities costing a lot more.  

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pointing fingers at services, not tariffs for high inflation.🤔

Still, the White House heard the people and is now making life slightly more affordable again.  

The U.S. is eliminating tariffs on  

• 🍌Bananas and ☕Coffee from Ecuador
• 🐄Beef from Argentina
• 👕Textiles and apparel from El Salvador & Guatemala
• 40% tariffs on many Brazilian products

The fine print:

But in return, they have to pinky promise to make deals with Washington, like easing regulations and licensing for U.S. companies for example.  

Other products still face tariffs:  

• 15% for Ecuador and 10% for Argentina, Guatemala and El Salvador.  

Don’t mean to put a downer on your holiday excitement but despite record sales on Black Friday, economists are warning the worst is still yet to come.  

Bottom line: Lifting tariffs helps U.S. consumers but don’t expect instant relief at the checkout.

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Tariff top hits: digital edition

U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on 400+ EU steel & aluminum products.

This goes against the Turnberry deal drawn up by President Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who agreed on 15% baseline tariffs for most EU products.  

Brussels pushes back and the U.S. responds with “loosen the digital rules and we’ll ease up on steel.”

On top of that, the EU also requested less tariffs on this shopping list: pasta🍝, cheese 🧀, wine 🍷, spirits🍾, olive oil🫒🛢️ and sunglasses 🕶️.

What now?

Well, the EU is in a tricky spot: protect its digital rules or get better access to the U.S. market for its steel and aluminum.

Stay tuned.  

🇰🇷 South Korea too?

Yeah, the digital tug of war made its way there too.  

The Trump administration warns South Korea not to fiddle with U.S. tech rules or else a section 301 investigation is on the table.

• Section 301 investigation: basically a U.S. trade watchdog: spots unfair foreign rules, investigates, and can hit back covering goods, services, and basically anything that moves money.

Entering the SAFE zone:

Canada officially joins the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program.

Think of this like a VIP backstage pass🎟️ to billions of dollars in defence projects with EU member states.  
SAFE offers $244 billion in loans for EU defence projects and now Canada gets the chance to bid on joint procurement initiatives.  

Turns out playing it “SAFE” can pay billions💲💲

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Canada-India talks, take two 🎬

PM Mark Carney and India’s PM Narendra Modi have agreed to relaunch negotiations for a more ambitious Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement (CEPA) after 2 years of tensions.  

The goal?

Double bilateral trade by 2030 to roughly US$50 billion.

The 🍒 on top? A 10 year uranium export deal worth US$2.8 billion supplied by Cameco Corp.  

Talk about a hard reset.  

But wait, there’s more…

🤝The Canada-India-Australia tech trio

At the same summit, Canada, India and Australia launched a trilateral (minilateral) partnership known as the Australia-Canada-India technology and Innovation Partnership a.k.a ACITI.  

What does the ACITI do?

• The alliance focuses on green energy, AI, critical minerals and resilient supply chains.
• Officials are rumored to meet in early 2026 to get the show on the road.

Why it matters: Thawing ties with India give Canada a chance to expand trade and investment beyond the U.S., tapping into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

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Canada goes Gulf-ing

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih dropped by Ottawa. Canada said, “Let’s talk money” 💵 and:

• launched Foreign Investment, Promotion and Protection agreement (FIPA) negotiations
• revived the Joint Economic Commission
  • a treaty-backed platform ready to boost trade and joint economic projects
• signed an EDC–Saudi EXIM MoU

PM Mark Carney followed in Abu Dhabi 🇦🇪, which btw, was the first visit by a Prime Minister in decades, to chat about target sectors like AI, frontier tech, healthcare, infrastructure, mining, defence… etc.  

Out of this meeting came a few good things for Canada:

• signing of the FIPA pact  
• teasing a full trade deal (Canada-U.A.E. Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement CEPA) that would essentially:
  • slash tariffs, streamline regulations, and expand market access, basically, the holy trinity for Canadian exporters.
• networking with sovereign wealth funds.

The result of all that hard work:  

 A $70 billion investment from the UAE. Bag secured💰💰💰

But here’s the thing.
Global trade deals matter, but they’re only as good as Canada’s ability to get the goods to market. 

That’s a wrap, folks!

Thank you 🙏 for sticking with the Trade Brief through the chaos, tariffs, tensions and vibes.

We hope you have a wonderful holiday, New Year and if you can swing it, tickets to watch the Stranger Things series finale in theaters.  

To those who ended up on a beach somewhere, lucky you.  

Until January 2026.  

Interesting reads worth the scroll:

• Canada must be prepared to stand on its own
• 29 ways Trump has changed Canada
• The most influential man in Europe thinks Europe is full of losers
• The new wealth of nations