{"id":8876,"date":"2021-03-15T11:07:42","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T11:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thebusinesscouncil.ca\/?post_type=publication&p=8876"},"modified":"2021-03-15T11:48:22","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T11:48:22","slug":"lheure-nest-pas-au-court-terme","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.thebusinesscouncil.ca\/fr\/publication\/lheure-nest-pas-au-court-terme\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019heure n’est pas au court terme"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tel que publi\u00e9 dans La Presse<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Difficile d\u2019oublier le d\u00e9but de crise titanesque dans lequel nous nous trouvions il y a un an. Les dommages \u00e9conomiques profonds et permanents que le cauchemar COVID-19 laissait pr\u00e9sager \u00e9taient bien r\u00e9els.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un an plus tard, force est de constater qu\u2019\u00e0 5,4 % du PIB en 2020, la contraction \u00e9conomique fut colossale ; l\u2019effort budg\u00e9taire qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9ploy\u00e9 par le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral pour y faire face d\u00e9passe d\u00e9j\u00e0 20 % du PIB. C\u2019est quatre fois plus que ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 consenti lors de la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le progr\u00e8s r\u00e9el accompli au cours des derni\u00e8res semaines vient toutefois changer la donne de fa\u00e7on significative. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le pr\u00e9sident Biden a accompli en 50 jours ce qu\u2019il avait promis de faire en 100 jours : d\u00e9j\u00e0 100 millions d\u2019Am\u00e9ricains ont \u00e9t\u00e9 vaccin\u00e9s. Vendredi dernier, il a promulgu\u00e9 son plan de relance de 1900 milliards (l\u2019\u00e9quivalent du PIB annuel canadien).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019impact du plan de relance am\u00e9ricain sera gigantesque, tant sur le plan domestique qu\u2019international. \u00c0 preuve, Morgan Stanley a r\u00e9vis\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance du PIB am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 7,4 % pour 2021, du jamais-vu depuis le boom qui remonte \u00e0 la guerre de Cor\u00e9ede 1951. Le Canada \u00ab importera \u00bb les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e9conomiques du m\u00e9ga-stimulus am\u00e9ricain. Une strat\u00e9gie industrielle pour faire concurrence \u00e0 la Chine dans les secteurs n\u00e9vralgiques est en pr\u00e9paration \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Banque du Canada, fermement engag\u00e9e \u00e0 poursuivre son programme d\u2019assouplissement quantitatif, a pris acte mercredi dernier que la croissance du PIB canadien au premier trimestre de 2021 sera positive, et non pas n\u00e9gative comme dans sa derni\u00e8re projection de janvier. Le PIB a d\u2019ailleurs cr\u00fb de 9,6 % au dernier trimestre de 2020 !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qui aurait pu pr\u00e9voir qu\u2019un an seulement apr\u00e8s l\u2019h\u00e9catombe, des voix s\u00e9rieuses s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8veraient pour nous pr\u00e9venir des dangers d\u2019une mont\u00e9e inflationniste soudaine caus\u00e9e par une surchauffe \u00e9conomique ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 la veille d\u2019un budget f\u00e9d\u00e9ral qui s\u2019annonce cons\u00e9quent (le dernier budget remonte \u00e0 2019 !), o\u00f9 cela nous am\u00e8ne-t-il sur le plan de la politique \u00e9conomique et budg\u00e9taire ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour le gouvernement Trudeau, un changement de cap est requis sur au moins trois fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Mieux cibler les programmes d\u2019aide et les restreindre aux secteurs (et travailleurs) durement touch\u00e9s. Nous ne sommes plus \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tape o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00c9tat agissait comme un pompier qui submerge les lieux d\u2019eau sans se soucier de savoir o\u00f9 est le feu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Un \u00ab stimulus \u00bb ax\u00e9 sur le court terme accomplira peu dans le contexte actuel. La demande reviendra \u00e0 mesure que nous rouvrirons l\u2019\u00e9conomie (et les secteurs que nous avons d\u00fb fermer) et que la vaccination de masse progressera. N\u2019oublions pas que l\u2019\u00e9pargne personnelle et le revenu disponible des Canadiens se situent \u00e0 un niveau beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Ce qui est requis, c\u2019est un plan de croissance \u00e0 long terme visant \u00e0 augmenter notre capacit\u00e9 productive : maximiser notre capital humain, commercialiser notre recherche et d\u00e9veloppement, acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer la num\u00e9risation des entreprises, adopter une politique industrielle cibl\u00e9e dans les secteurs en croissance et faciliter la transition vers une \u00e9conomie \u00e0 faibles \u00e9missions de carbone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8654,"template":"","post_types":[99],"topics":[91,83,84,67],"class_list":["post-8876","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","post_types-lettres-dopinion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nL\u2019heure n'est pas au court terme | Business Council of Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thebusinesscouncil.ca\/fr\/publication\/lheure-nest-pas-au-court-terme\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019heure n'est pas au court terme | Business Council of Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tel que publi\u00e9 dans La Presse Difficile d\u2019oublier le d\u00e9but de crise titanesque dans lequel nous nous trouvions il y a un an. 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