{"id":17109,"date":"2023-06-15T09:54:32","date_gmt":"2023-06-15T13:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebusinesscouncil.ca\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=17109"},"modified":"2023-06-15T09:54:32","modified_gmt":"2023-06-15T13:54:32","slug":"la-nouvelle-realite-inflationniste","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.thebusinesscouncil.ca\/fr\/publication\/la-nouvelle-realite-inflationniste\/","title":{"rendered":"La nouvelle r\u00e9alit\u00e9 inflationniste"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e5ebee\"><em>Comme publi\u00e9 dans<\/em> <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lapresse.ca\/debats\/opinions\/2023-06-15\/la-nouvelle-realite-inflationniste.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">La Presse<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mais dans les faits, la d\u00e9cision du conseil de direction de la Banque de hausser le taux directeur \u00e0 4,75&nbsp;% est lourde de cons\u00e9quences. Elle marque un pivot important dans la lutte contre l\u2019inflation dont les deux ordres de gouvernement doivent prendre acte. Qui plus est, elle impose un changement de direction dans la conduite de leurs politiques budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En signalant une pause lors de son annonce en janvier dernier, la Banque avait laiss\u00e9 pr\u00e9sager l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de jours plus heureux en mati\u00e8re de contr\u00f4le des prix \u2013 l\u2019atteinte d\u2019un plafond qui nous ram\u00e8nerait \u00e0 un retour graduel \u00e0 la cible de 2&nbsp;%. Ce qu\u2019elle nous a annonc\u00e9 mercredi dernier est un revirement de taille&nbsp;: le travail est loin d\u2019\u00eatre termin\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Signe que la hausse vertigineuse et rapide des taux n\u2019a pas eu l\u2019effet d\u00e9sir\u00e9, la force du march\u00e9 du logement et celle du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi sont ind\u00e9niables \u2013 et ainsi fondamentalement incompatibles avec une&nbsp;inflation contr\u00f4l\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans son discours le lendemain de l\u2019annonce de la Banque du Canada, le sous-gouverneur Paul Beaudry l\u2019a reconnu d\u2019embl\u00e9e&nbsp;: \u00ab&nbsp;\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re de la dynamique r\u00e9cente de l\u2019inflation fondamentale et de la demande exc\u00e9dentaire continue, nous avons convenu qu\u2019il y avait maintenant un plus grand risque que l\u2019inflation globale reste coinc\u00e9e nettement au-dessus de la cible de 2&nbsp;%.&nbsp;\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les march\u00e9s ayant d\u00e9j\u00e0 accept\u00e9 une autre hausse de 25 points de base en juillet comme une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 quasi incontournable, l\u2019atterrissage en douceur que plusieurs nous avaient promis appara\u00eet soudainement incertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Course contre la montre<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 ce stade-ci, les banques centrales ne peuvent tout simplement plus pr\u00eacher la patience et la complaisance. Le temps est devenu un ennemi de taille dans la lutte contre l\u2019inflation. Un affaiblissement du pouvoir d\u2019achat ne constitue ni plus ni moins qu\u2019une taxe additionnelle sur le revenu des Canadiens. Nous sommes dans une course contre la montre&nbsp;: plus les attentes d\u2019inflation resteront ancr\u00e9es, plus il sera difficile de contr\u00f4ler la hausse des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En choisissant de mettre tout le fardeau de la lutte contre l\u2019inflation sur le dos de la banque centrale et en refusant ainsi d\u2019ajuster leurs politiques budg\u00e9taires respectives, les gouvernements rament \u00e0 contre-courant&nbsp;: ils contribuent \u00e0 creuser le foss\u00e9 des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques, sociales et interg\u00e9n\u00e9rationnelles caus\u00e9es par la hausse des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019effet combin\u00e9 des crises de l\u2019inflation, du logement et de la&nbsp;productivit\u00e9 forme une nouvelle trinit\u00e9 d\u2019une nocivit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique consid\u00e9rable pour la classe moyenne et les gens \u00e0&nbsp;faible revenu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La d\u00e9cennie qui a suivi la grande crise financi\u00e8re de 2008 a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9e par une demande insuffisante. Nous sommes maintenant ailleurs. La p\u00e9riode post-pand\u00e9mique en est une caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e par des contraintes importantes du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l\u2019offre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il n\u2019est pas insens\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui de concevoir un monde dans lequel l\u2019inflation et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat resteront au-dessus des niveaux pr\u00e9pand\u00e9miques, o\u00f9 la croissance \u00e9conomique sera an\u00e9mique et o\u00f9 la dynamique budg\u00e9taire se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorera rapidement. Au lieu de travailler de concert, les trois fondements d\u2019une politique \u00e9conomique saine \u2013 croissance (productivit\u00e9), \u00e9quit\u00e9 et stabilit\u00e9 des prix \u2013 se trouveront alors en conflit. Dans ce contexte, restaurer l\u2019inflation \u00e0 la cible de 2&nbsp;% doit \u00eatre l\u2019objectif premier et partag\u00e9 de la politique mon\u00e9taire et budg\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":234,"featured_media":13278,"template":"","post_types":[99],"topics":[85,84,67],"class_list":["post-17109","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","post_types-lettres-dopinion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La nouvelle r\u00e9alit\u00e9 inflationniste | Business Council of Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thebusinesscouncil.ca\/fr\/publication\/la-nouvelle-realite-inflationniste\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La nouvelle r\u00e9alit\u00e9 inflationniste | Business Council of Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Comme publi\u00e9 dans La Presse Mais dans les faits, la d\u00e9cision du conseil de direction de la Banque de hausser le taux directeur \u00e0 4,75&nbsp;% est lourde de cons\u00e9quences. 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